Good luck this weekend if you're a boxing bettor who likes to play the underdogs. BetMGM has ten fights on the card from Thursday to Saturday, and the favourite in each is at least -400.
As of today's bouts, the favorites at BetMGM are -400, -10,000, -2,000, -450, -3,000, -1,400, -2,500, -5,000, -900 and -900. So if you like underdogs, and one shows up, you have a chance at a nice reward.
It also means that the odds are wildly against getting that big reward.
But in the biggest fight of the weekend, the unified light heavyweight title fight in New York between IBF-WBC champion Artur Beterbiev and WBO champion Joe Smith Jr. could present a legitimate opportunity for the underdog players.
Beterbiev, 17-0 with 17 knockouts, is a -900 favourite over Smith, who is +475.
Smith, who is 28-3 with 22 knockouts, is a hard puncher against a guy who can be hit and has been knocked down twice in his pro career. Jeff Page dropped Beterbiev in the first in 2014, and Callum Johnson dropped him in the second in 2018. Smith by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ is +900. That means that a bet of $100 generates a profit of $900.
If Smith hits him on the chin, there's no question he can win by knockout. Beterbiev has been hurt in other fights but has better boxing skills than he is given credit for. Sometimes he is in attack mode and gets caught, but his fight at the 2012 Olympics against Oleksandr Usyk proved he could box.
Usyk, a genius-level master boxer, won that fight 17-13 on the Olympic scoring system, but Beterbiev was far from outmatched and was in the fight.
Knowing that Smith has range and powe, Beterbiev will probably be more alert defensively than he has been against others. KO/TKO by Beterbiev Technical Decision or DQ is -250, which means if he bets $250 and Beterbiev wins KO or TKO, he will make a profit of $100.
Combined, the fighters have 39 knockouts among their 45 wins. Smith was stopped once in his three losses by Eddie Caminero in 2010, so 40 of the 45 fights they've been involved in as pros have ended inside the distance.
BetMGM has many proposed bets on this fight, including group round betting. So, for example, you could bet that Beterbiev wins Rounds 1-4 and gets +450 or that he wins Rounds 5-8 and gets +220 or Rounds 9-12 and gets +260.
I think Smith presents a legitimate challenge, but Beterbiev has a better pedigree and more pop. Smith has never faced anyone who hits remotely as hard as Beterbiev. But there is no chance he is betting 9-1 on Beterbiev to win.
However, the over-under is interesting. If you're betting the fight goes under nine complete rounds, it's -125. If you bet nine rounds or more, it's -110.
I'll play that it goes nine complete rounds or more and put in the -110. I think Beterbiev wins this in the end and will wear Smith down, but Smith is tough, and it will take Beterbiev a while to find out.
Login To Leave a Comment