Suppose the Browns hadn't offered quarterback Deshaun Watson a fully guaranteed, $230 million, five-year contract. In that case, it's doubtful that the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson would have been able to reach an agreement. Jackson and the Ravens could not reach an agreement due mainly to the Watson contract.
Jackson allegedly desired a fully guaranteed deal, mainly because Watson had one. Jackson's stance is not unreasonable at all. He was named the league MVP. Not Watson. Off the field, Jackson has served the Ravens admirably. Watson hasn't, to put it mildly. Jackson gets the same five years with complete assurance that Watson does.
On the other hand, the Ravens' refusal to comply is reasonable. According to later agreements (like those with Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson), the Watson contract may have been an outlier. The stars were, in fact, perfectly aligned for Watson. Despite his off-field problems, he was able to:
Jackson won't be able to generate the same kind of rush for his services until he fights to be dealt with following the 2023 season. Even if he does, one of the teams interested in signing him will need to be desperate to make a deal that will be laughed at and rejected by the rest of the league.
Jackson will still have to wait three more years before becoming an unrestricted free agent in the mold of Kirk Cousins if the Ravens opt to use the franchise tag in 2023 and 2024. Given his playing style, Jackson may not be the same after three more seasons of frequently rushing the ball and taking hits.
Another reason Jackson needed an agent was so that the agent could have explained the circumstance to Jackson. Who could have explained why getting the Watson deal was impossible, barring a willingness to decline to play for the Ravens? Who would have given him advice on the benefits and drawbacks, costs and risks, and advantages and disadvantages of accepting or rejecting the Ravens' best offer?
Another scenario is that Jackson may have been and may still be receiving unnoticed advice from the NFL Players Association. After the Watson settlement, union president JC Tretter urged agents to demand completely guaranteed contracts in an essay. What if the NFLPA pushed this agenda instead of Jackson's true best interests when it offered recommendations to Jackson?
Jackson hasn't said much about the procedure, so it's reasonable to wonder where and from whom he has gotten his counsel. That would help explain the refusal to accept Baltimore's final offer — if they were willing to exceed the Murray and Wilson figures. Suppose someone had advised him to hold firm for a fully-guaranteed contract without explaining that he might have been better off getting the most guarantees and maxing out his compensation relative to the Murray and Wilson contracts.
What the Ravens offered is unknown. However, this team is the Ravens, not one of the many dysfunctional groups that always manage to make things worse. It's reasonable to assume that the Ravens put together a package that, while not fully guaranteed, became a solid alternative to $124 million over the next three years, on a year-to-year basis of $23 million in 2022, roughly $46 million under the exclusive franchise tag in 2023, and then $55.2 million under the label in 2024. This is based on the deals they've done in recent years with key players.
The options were Door No. 1 ($124 million over three years) or Door No. 2 (Baltimore's best offer, as part of a deal that wasn't guaranteed) unless Jackson had other plans, like seeking a trade following the 2022 season. He went with Door No. 1. He is well entitled to carry it out. I hope he did it fully aware of the consequences of choosing Door No. 2 and appreciating them. The justification "It wasn't entirely guaranteed" is insufficient to justify doing that.
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