Judge Aaron had one of the best offensive seasons in history. Shohei Ohtani continues to defy expectations of what is possible as a two-way player.
With the 2022 MLB regular season now complete, voters will have to decide which of these two players deserves the AL MVP award.
2022 MLB regular season runs put some distance between him and Ohtani in the eyes of analysts, but that doesn't mean the run should be declared over. Ohtani, the reigning AL MVP, improved on his pitch while still being one of the best power hitters in the game.
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The Sporting News takes a look at Judge and Ohtani's season numbers. Statistics were obtained from Baseball Savant, Baseball Reference, and Fangraphs.
As impressive as Ohtani's numbers are in 2022, there is no question which player reigns supreme in this category. He would become the sixth player to hit 60 home runs.
Judge also collected significantly more extra hits and hit the ball harder, on average.
Judge statistics Ohtani
62 Home runs, 3.4
90 Extra basic strokes, 70
.686 Batting percentage .519
.382 Isolated power .246
95.9mph Average output speed 93.0mph
118.4mph Maximum output speed 119.1mph
Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani: speed
There is no obvious advantage in the speed category. The Judge was a more effective base stealer with more singles down the field, but Ohtani is the faster runner.
This season, Judge has significantly increased the number of stolen bases. In his previous six seasons, he had 24. Ohtani, on the other hand, has seen a drop in hits. He committed 26 robberies in 2021.
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As with power, there is little discussion of who has the best numbers in this category. Judge competed for the batting title and racked up walks as pitchers feared throwing strikes at him.
But when it comes to plate discipline numbers, Ohtani is right up there with his ability to take the free base when he's introduced.
.311 Medium .273
.425 % On the base .356
16.0% bb index 10.9%
25.1% withdrawal fee 24.2%
29.2% failure rate 28.2%
23.1% hunting rate 28.3%
Judge and Ohtani have released defensive stats this year. The Judge went into the outfield, center, and right field, while Ohtani only posted defensive stats from his time on the mound. This season it has appeared in the gardens.
Judge ranked in the 77th percentile for strikeouts above average among outfielders while continuing to display outstanding defense.
Is it to judge? Maybe not, but shooting should count in any MVP conversation for Ohtani, just like defense on the floor counts for the Judge.
Ohtani is in the conversation for the youngest city in the AL, though he's a long way from winning the award at +10,000, tied for fourth in the AL, according to Caesars Sportsbook.
There are many ways to compare Judge and Ohtani, but the best way is to look at stats like replacement wins and overall win probability, as these stats take all of the above factors into account.
Ohtani presents some challenges when evaluating their WAR and WPA. These stats don't consider the added value of an additional roster spot that Ohtani saves, though that spot will likely go to a backup-level player.
10.7 BR 3.5 (hit), 6.0 (throw)
8.0 bWPA 2.5 (hit), 3.3 (throw)
11.0 fWAR 3.9 (hit), 5.4 (throw)
7.58 fWPA 2.43 (hitter), 3.26 (pitcher)
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