Bizarre statistic from Bobby
NBA contenders' general managers had already begun to live by the phrase years before Los Angeles Rams GM Les Snead's famous "f*** them picks" statement went viral.
In exchange for Anthony Davis, the Los Angeles Lakers gave the New Orleans Pelicans three first-round selections and the ability to swap one of them (a trade that won the Lakers a ring). Brooklyn acquired James Harden from Houston for four unprotected first-round picks and four first-round pick trades. In the Paul George trade, Oklahoma City acquired some selections from the Clippers, which they have been accumulating. This summer, Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell were traded by Utah for seven first-round picks and some first-round exchange rights. Just those are the well-known names. Additionally, teams like San Antonio, Orlando, and Indiana hoard picks.
According to a bizarre statistic from Bobby Marks of ESPN, eight teams will control 85 first-round picks over the next seven years. That represents 40% of all first-round picks over the following seven years.
When you combine their selections with trades and swaps, the Jazz and Thunder both have 14 first-round picks in their possession. Although the extra picks and swaps are good, these clubs value their own picks the most because Utah is unlikely to win many games this year and will most likely receive a top pick in a packed class. With other teams, the same tendency emerges.
Two factors are driving this development.
One is when teams spend all of their draught cash on roster upgrades. That isn't entirely new, but it used to be saved for deals like the one the Lakers made to acquire Davis — deals that catapult clubs into the top tier. The Milwaukee Bucks acquired Jrue Holiday for a high price, but the move paid off with a championship. To get Rudy Gobert, a center that makes Minnesota good, a playoff team, but not a contender, Minnesota had to give up four unprotected picks this summer. (You can argue that the Timberwolves made the right choice in trading for Gobert, but their price was excessively high; demand for his services wasn't that high.) With three choices, Cleveland gambled heavily on Donovan Mitchell. Still, this move will not immediately elevate the Cavaliers to a title contender (it could, in a few years, if things go right). Teams are prepared to employ draught picks and trade swaps to improve now, even if that improvement does not elevate them to contender status.
According to Sam Hinkie's approach to "the process" in Philadelphia, get as many swings as possible. The premise is that the draught is a crap shoot, even with the best talent scouting and eye. Through the process, the 76ers not only selected Joel Embiid, the foundation of a title contender, but also Jahlil Okafor, Markelle Fultz, and Ben Simmons (to be fair, Simmons was an All-Star level player who may not have fit in Philly, but they were able to trade him for James Harden). Get as many swings as possible because not every top draught pick will be a home run or even a good single. The rebuilding teams have heeded this.
As a result, eight teams will receive 40% of all first-round selections for the following seven years.
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