The outcomes of the 2022 Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve have been in the books for even more than a month, but the Queen's Plate Stakes — Canada's counterpart of the Derby – will not be run until August 21. As a result, crucial Queen's Plate prep races are only now getting started, with Sunday's $125,000 Queenston Stakes at Woodbine being a prime example.
On Tapeta, the synthetic racetrack surface established at Woodbine, the Queenston is run over seven-eighths of a mile. Because Tapeta can be difficult for some horses to manage, wagering on horses with previous Tapeta experience is generally a good idea.
#5 The Minister offers experience with the local footing as a plus. Last fall, the son of turf winner the English Channel debuted on the Woodbine grass course, displaying front-running speed to win a first particular class sprint by 6 14 lengths. When moving to Tapeta for the one 1/8-mile Coronation Futurity, The Minister was just as outstanding, tracking a cautious pace before seizing leadership and winning by 14 lengths.
The Minister has a lot of potentials, and his adaptability is impressive. Is he, though, the most likely Queenston winner? His layoff is a question mark because he hasn't run since October 30. Brisnet's Speed rating of 82 for The Minister is among the slowest in the Queenston field, implying that he'll need to improve in his 3-year-old bow to contend for first place.
On the other hand, none of these considerations applies to #7 Rondure. He finished fifth and sixth in a pair of maiden sprints at Woodbine Tapeta last fall, sired by Preakness winner Oxbow.
However, when he returned from a winter vacation on May 14, he ran out of skin and had to settle for a couple of lengths off the pace. Rondure put on a show down the stretch of his maiden victory, running the final furlong in:11.79 to finish in 1:22.73 and get a Brisnet Speed rating of 92. That's tied for the best figure in the Queenston group, so if Rondure can replicate the feat whilst stepping up in class on Sunday, he'll be challenging to surpass.
Who are Queenston's other leading contenders? #6 Duke of Love is deserving of respect. Duke of Love, trained by Josie Carroll (a 24 per cent winner at Woodbine this meet), is 2-for-2 on the Woodbine Tapeta, with triumphs in maiden and allowance sprints sandwiched around a fifth-place result in the Gulfstream Park grass in the Pulpit Stakes.
We can't forget about #3 His Time. His Time was excellent in his debut running across the Woodbine Tapeta on May 8 for Trainer/Hall of Famer Mark Casse (also a 24 per cent winner at Woodbine thus far this spring). His Time was heavily favoured to win a particular maiden weight at odds of 1-2 and led by daylight at every call, eventually winning by two lengths over a next-out winner.
His Time will be ridden by hot rider Patrick Husbands (a 30% winner at Woodbine. This #1 Ironstone hasn't won in his previous three runs, but he's run well in each of them, finishing second in the Display Stakes and third in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes before finishing third in the Woodstock Stakes to start 2022. Last year, Ironstone crushed the Simcoe Stakes and Clarendon Stakes sprinting over the Woodbine Tapeta, and he's put in a couple of fast workouts since the Woodstock, indicating he could finish in the top three on Sunday. Meet) on Sunday, which adds to the appeal.
Then there's #4, which is called Hidden Honor. Last year, he finished 12th behind The Minister in the Coronation Futurity after failing to win in his first three appearances. On the other hand, Hidden Honour looked like a different horse in a maiden race at Woodbine on April 23, sweeping from behind at a slow pace to win by 2 12 lengths with an 88 Brisnet Speed rating.
The Queenston field has a lot of quality and potential, which is understandable for a Queen's Plate qualifier two and a half months before the big race. We'll use Rondure at the top of our betting tactics, with The Minister, Duke of Love, His Time, Ironstone, and Hidden Honor in varied strengths underneath. On a $20 Budget, a Wagering Strategy
On #7 Rondure, it's $11 to win.
What to say at the racetrack: Woodbine, 9th race, $11 to win on 7
7 with 1,3,4 ($9) is a $3 Exacta.
Woodbine, 9th race, $3 exact 7 with 1,3,4-1,3,4-1,3,4-1,3,4-1,3,4-1,3 ,4-1,3,4-1,3,4-1,3,4-1,3,4-1,3.
On a $50 budget, what is the best wagering strategy?
On #7 Rondure, you can win $26.
What to say in the betting window: 9th race at Woodbine, $26 to win on 7
$1 Trifecta: 7, 1,3,4, and 1,3,4,5,6 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 9th race, $1 trifecta 7 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,
$1 Trifecta: 7, 1,3,4,5,6, 1,3,4 ($12)
What to say in the betting window: $1 trifecta 7 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 1,3,4
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