It's challenging to comprehend how much history is involved with this Sunday's $1 million Queen's Plate Stakes at Woodbine. The equivalent of the Kentucky Derby in Canada, Presented by Woodford Reserve, has been run every year since its first attempt in 1860, making this year's renewal the 163rd iteration of the illustrious race.
The Queen's Plate is contested by 3-year-old Thoroughbreds bred in Canada over 1 14 miles on the main Tapeta course at Woodbine. The Queen's Plate attracts a sizable field, and 11 horses will run on Sunday.
The only filly in the field, #8 Moira, is the 5-2 morning line favourite. Since only three fillies have won the Kentucky Derby in 148 years, bettors familiar with the race's past could believe Moira is at a disadvantage. However, fillies have triumphed in an incredible 37 Queen's Plate races, with four victories occurring in the previous ten years.
Both of these statistics and Moira's lineage are encouraging. The bay filly is a daughter of Ghostzapper, 2004's Horse of the Year and recipient of the Eclipse Award. Moira is bred to succeed in Canada's premier event since Ghostzapper has already produced two Queen's Plate champions (the filly Holy Helena and the stallion Shaman Ghost).
Moira has already demonstrated a high talent level in four starts at Woodbine. Last fall, she made her racing debut in the one 1/16-mile Princess Elizabeth Stakes, where she unleashed a fantastic rally from off the pace to win by 4 14 lengths. It's unusual to see a horse make its stakes debut, much less take home the prize, but Moira made it look simple.
A tight second-place result ended Moira's brief juvenile career in the Grade 3 Mazarine Stakes, and ever since she started racing again at age three, she has been unstoppable. Moira returned to win by a head in the seven-eighths-mile Fury Stakes race. For the Woodbine Oaks, Moira stretched out over 1 1/8 miles after this season-opening sprint sharpening. On July 24 and swiftly destroyed her pursuers by 10 3/4 lengths.
A form of Triple Crown for Canadian-bred fillies, the Canadian Triple Tiara's opening leg is the Woodbine Oaks. The Bison City Stakes is the second leg, and Sister Seagull, who finished far behind Moira in the Woodbine Oaks, came back to triumph in the Bison City.
The Canadian Triple Tiara was undoubtedly Moira's to lose, but her connections—which include hot trainer Kevin Attard—have chosen to have her compete against men in the Queen's Plate. Their decision makes perfect sense given how quickly Moira raced in the Woodbine Oaks. Moira finished in 1:49.78 thanks to a sweeping rally from off the pace; by contrast, it took the horse #10 Sir for Sure 1:50.62 to win the Plate Trial Stakes earlier in the day.
Without #6 Rondure, her most formidable foe and perhaps the most accomplished horse in the competition, Moira would probably be the clear favourite to win the Queen's Plate.
Rondure didn't perform well as a youngster, failing to place higher than fifth in a pair of maiden sprints. Still, since his comeback at age three, the Preakness Stakes winner Oxbow's son has developed into a different animal.
First, Rondure defeated a first-time particular weight field at Woodbine by 10 34 lengths in a seven-eighths of a mile race. Then, over the same course and distance, he attempted the Queenston Stakes, where he came up just short of catching #4 The Minkster by a head.
In the one 1/16-mile Grade 3 Marine Stakes at Woodbine, a contest open to all 3-year-old Thoroughbreds regardless of where they were foaled, Rondure at last extended beyond a sprint distance. Rondure wasn't the favourite to win, but he performed like one nevertheless, keeping up a steady early pace until accelerating to win by 5 12 lengths.
According to Brisnet Speed ratings, Moira and Rondure are both swift horses. The outcome of a contest in the Queen's Plate is unpredictable. The decision between them won't be simple.
But then, why pick? Because there is a sizable field and predicted betting pools, we can still win money if we place exotic bets (such as exactas, trifectas, and superfectas) on Moira and Rondure to finish 1-2 in either order.
Beyond the top two, Duke of Love (#5) is a clear contender. It's understandable why the Marine Stakes runner-up finished fourth in the Plate Trial Stakes because he encountered significant traffic issues down the stretch.
The prospects of #3 Ironstone, who has hit the trifecta in seven straight prizes at Woodbine, must also be considered if we prefer Duke of Love.
He ran well to place third in the Queenston, beating The Minkster and Rondure by a neck, then used pacesetting strategies to place third in the Marine, finishing only a neck behind Duke of Love.
We also can't rule out #10, Sir, for Sure as a contender. Sir, for Sure, defeated the No. 1 Hall of Dreams in the Plate Trial by a margin of 21.85-1. However, Sir, for Sure, is 2-for-2 on lengthier distances on the Woodbine Tapeta, so he may enjoy extending out over 1 14 miles in the Plate Trial. It's important to note that Lexie Lou, the 2014 Queen's Plate champion, comes out of Sir for Sure, a son of Sligo Bay.
Here are three potential wagering approaches to take into account, depending on how much money you have set aside for betting on the Queen's Plate:
Making the Most of a $10 Bet
Exacta box for $5: 6,8 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: $5 exacta box 6,8 for the 10th race at Woodbine
A Gambling Strategy for $24
$6 Box exact: 6,8 ($12)
How to conduct yourself at the betting counter: Woodbine, 10th race, $6 exacta box 6,8
Trifecta at $2: 6,8, 6,8, and 3,5,10 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: $2 trifecta 6,8,6,8,3,5,10, Woodbine, 10th race.
Wagering Methodology for $50
$7 6, 8 exacta ($14)
How to conduct yourself at the betting counter: Woodbine, 10th race, $7 exacta box 6,8
Trifecta for $3.60: 6,8 with 6,8
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