Between the ages of 2 and 3, thoroughbreds are regarded to go through the most critical changes in terms of growth and maturity. It's one of the fundamental reasons several 2-year-old Triple Crown champions have struggled when tested on the Triple Crown circuit. Furthermore, the Triple Crown prep races allow select 3-year-olds to emerge as significant rivals. In contrast, others show that they cannot survive the challenge when the waters go deeper.
Thanks to completing the prep races, the narratives that have emerged for the 2017 Kentucky Derby finally have some clarity. A detailed examination of an 8-horse field differs significantly from a lengthy analysis of a 20-horse area. Thus, revisiting previous themes may help focus on this year's Derby. Here are some of the most basic Kentucky Derby storylines, as I can determine.
1. The Man Who Isn't Present
Bob Baffert's narrative is impossible to ignore. His absence has a significant influence because he has trained three of the last seven Derby winners. Two of his trainees, who are currently in the care of Tim Yakteen, will almost certainly be in the field. Nobody knows what Messier and Taiba will gain in the weeks leading up to the Derby by not having a hands-on Baffert approach.
2. Is this the Asmussen year?
The Steve Asmussen machine continues to produce winners next year; he became the all-time winningest trainer. In terms of wins, he's way ahead of Todd Pletcher this year, and he's close behind him in terms of prize money. He is the trainer of Epicenter, the Derby points leader and likely favorite, and Echo Zulu, the Kentucky Oaks' runner-up. Both horses will have a 6-week layoff between their previous races and their significant Kentucky dates, allowing the trainer plenty of time to fine-tune them for their most outstanding performances. One notable blot on the trainer's record is his 0 for 23 papers in the Derby, which could be a factor.
3. Will Brad Cox win the Kentucky Derby for a second consecutive year?
The winner of the 2021 Derby was Mandaloun, trained by Cox, while Medina Spirit was disqualified.
There's little doubt Cox wants to win the race by reaching the finish line first, and he has three opportunities to accomplish so. Zozos finished second behind Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby, his third race, and he is anticipated to develop due to that experience. Cox also trains Cyberknife, who won the Arkansas Derby against a shaky field. He will love the extra furlong of the Kentucky Derby as a son of Gun Runner. Tawny Port, his third entrant, has run well in previous races.
4. Will Chad Brown be able to add the Kentucky Derby to his illustrious resume?
Chad has won four Eclipse Awards as the most pleasing trainer in the United States, although he has never won the Derby despite six efforts. The Blue Grass Stakes winner, Zandon, came from last to win by two and a half lengths. A strong start in the Derby might pave the way for his running style. His other horse, Early Voting, led on the front end of the Wood Memorial before Mo Donegal nailed him at the fence. It was his first race in almost two months, and he had every reason to be excited.
5. Is Saffie Joseph, Jr. going to win?
Joseph, who is in his mid-30s, was the most dominant trainer at this year's Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park. The highlight of the guy from Barbados' successes was White Abarrio, the Florida Derby winner.
6. Is Todd Pletcher a Derby contender to be reckoned with?
Many of his high-priced colts were entered in the Derby-based on the choices of their owners, as seen by his 2-for-59 Kentucky Derby record. After all, he's won about 5,300 races throughout his career, accounting for nearly a quarter of them. On the other hand, both of his horses are coming off of solid prep runs this year. With a powerful finish, Mo Donegal won the Wood Memorial, and he'll relish the mile-and-a-quarter distance of the Derby. The charge took third place in his third race of the season. He finished a solid second to White Abarrio in the Florida Derby. In the stretch, he dragged in the race. He pulled the race down the stretch. It was a race in which he showed off his great potential.
7. Will Derby Day be Old Timer's Day?
Taiba, the victor of the Santa Anita Derby, is slated to be ridden by Mike Smith, 56. He'll put his decades of experience to work to help the lightly raced colt win the race of his life. After dueling the Forbidden Kingdom for the lead throughout the race, Messier finished a game second in the Santa Anita Derby. John Velazquez, a 50-year-old often competitive in the big races, is expected to ride Messier. Smith has won the Kentucky Derby twice, while Velazquez has won it three times. Having experience on your side is critical in a 20-horse field in the most important race of all.
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