The Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes, worth $1 million, will still take place in the summer at its usual location, but it will now be held at Churchill Downs on a memorable day of racing at the legendary track. The old focal point of the meet at Arlington International Racecourse still has plenty of power. Nine turf stars will compete, including two horses with nearly $1 million combined career earnings. If they win on Saturday, six of the remaining seven will have earned more than $1 million in their careers.

With a $1.5 million career bankroll, Smooth Like Strait has had 15 of his 20 starts end in victories or second-place results. One of those second-place finishes came in his most recent appearance, the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile Stakes on May 30. With $1.1 million in earnings and nine career victories, the most recent of which was in the Grade 2 Seabiscuit Handicap last fall, Field Pass enters the race with a strong resume. 

Santin has only competed seven times to date, as opposed to at least twice as many for most of his rivals. Still, he has made the most of those starts with three victories, including the Grade 1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes, which was run this spring on Kentucky Derby Day at the same one 1/8-mile distance as the Arlington Million. Set Piece has won four of his five career runs on the grass at Churchill Downs, including the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes in June of last year (although this turf course at Churchill is a new one, debuting in the spring). Set Piece also triumphed in the Grade 2 Dinner Party Stakes in May.

Sacred Life, who won the Grade 3 Monmouth Stakes before running in the Arlington Million, is a horse that rarely runs poorly. In her 26 career starts on grass, she has finished first or second 17 times. Last month, Megacity led Field Pass across the finish line in the Texas Turf Classic Stakes before being penalized and finishing second for interfering. Having won the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes on this brand-new Churchill Downs turf course in June, Admission Office also possesses the qualifications necessary to compete in this industry. Similar to how Cellist triumphed over this course in the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes in May. 

Cavalry Charge enters the event after a second-place showing in a stake at Horseshoe Indianapolis behind multiple Grade/Group 1 stakes champion Ivar. At the distance of the Arlington Million in February, Cavalry Charge won the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Stakes on turf.

The top two candidates for winning are as follows:

Santin, one of just two 4-year-old horses in this year's Arlington Million Stakes (the other being Cellist), has only had one career start where he hasn't performed well. When he last competed, on June 11, in the Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes, he came in sixth, probably due to the need to have one of his shoes mended in the paddock shortly before the race. 

Additionally, the fact that he was competing at Belmont Park for the first time or trying the one 14-mile distance of the race may have contributed to his poor performance. Santin raced the best career race before the Manhattan at Churchill Downs and the Arlington Million (1 1/8 miles). In May, the colt recorded a career-best 115 Equibase Speed Figure in the aforementioned Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes. Santin and the other competitors in that race engaged in a three-sixteenth-mile-long head-to-head struggle.

Tyler Gaffalione, who rides back on Saturday, was riding that day. Since shipping from New York to Churchill Downs, Santin has put in a sharp morning three-furlong blowout. That ought to frighten him into reproducing his Turf Classic performance in the Arlington Million.

Set Piece, who will travel from New York to Churchill Downs, where he has won four turf races, should also return to his best form. The best of those efforts occurred 14 months earlier when the horse overcame, finishing last of 10 to triumph in the Wise Dan Stakes and scoring a respectable 112 number.

Set Piece returned to the winner's circle in his second outing on the comeback trail, coming from last to win the Dinner Party Stakes in May after a seven-month hiatus from September of last year until this April. Then, in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple Stakes last month, Set Piece improved from 11th to roughly one length of the leaders before being caught up in a wall of horses, finding a path to run far too late to make a difference, and finishing fifth. Set Piece turned in an intense morning session before shipping from New York, clocking a time of 47.8 seconds for four furlongs—the best of 59 workouts at a distance that day. 

As a result, it is entirely realistic to anticipate that Set Piece will resume its winning streak.

There is no doubt that Smooth Like Strait, one of the anticipated betting favorites, will win almost every time because he has placed first or second in 15 of 20 lifetime starts on grass. In the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented by PDJF last fall, he came up short by a half-length while posting a career-best 119 figure. Besides that, he has won or placed second in his last six races, all of which have been at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level, including third place in the Maker's Mark Mile this past spring.

The last two times he ran 1 1/8 miles, Smooth Like Strait was in the lead with a quarter of a mile remaining, and although pushing on to the finish, he lost both times by a neck.

Admission Office (114), Cavalry Charge (107), Cellist (109), Field Pass (114), Megacity (109), and Sacred Life round out the Field with their most significant Equibase Speed Figures (115).